Preparing the Region for War

From the desk of Reuven Kaminer

November 26, 2012

Preparing the Region for War Against Iran       

The Israeli attack on Gaza is yet another round in the ongoing efforts by Israel to squash any expression of active Palestinian resistance to the occupation. The siege of Gaza is of course, along with the settlement drive, part of the permanent structures in place to prevent the accumulation of any means that might help the Palestinians to enhance their resistance.

The latest Israeli operation exhibits all the permanent characteristics of typical forms of Israeli repression, but must be seen and analyzed on an additional level. Israel attacked Gaza, this time, mainly in pursuit of its duties as the regional deputy of the US in their common preparations for war against Iran.     

Indeed, enough evidence has accumulated to confirm that  Israel, with full US backing, attacked Gaza and the Hamas leadership after it became clear that Hamas refused to break off its main links with the Iranian bloc. The attack was punishment for that refusal.   

Following the ascension of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi to power, there were rumors that Hamas was well on the way to transfer its allegiance away from the Iranian bloc and to the US regional alignment.  The US hoped that Hamas would act in accord with its historical and traditional links to the Moslem Brotherhood, which had recently become the ruling power in Egypt. Well, things  are not that simple. The US and Morsi, backed by Qatari money, were indeed involved in encouraging Hamas to chose a path similar to that traversed by Abbas and Fatah in the WestBank. Their efforts proved futile.

" Iran and its regional rivals, the Sunni Muslim-led states in the Gulf, have been competing in recent months to lure Hamas into their respective camps. The top Hamas leader in exile, Khaled Mashaal, is being hosted by the Gulf state of Qatar, which has promised hundreds of millions of dollars for Gaza." (Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2012)

The US and the Gulf sheikhs wanted very much to wean Hamas away from its Teheran connections.  Theoretically, the sheikhs could have included weaponry in the dowry for Hamas. But this was not feasible because Hamas refused to cooperate with the US, unlike its West Bank counterpart.  Haniah is not Abbas and Hamas is not Fatah. If Hamas wanted to move into the US sphere of influence, it would have to declare at the door that it had forsworn armed military resistance to the Israeli occupation.  And it was not willing to pay that kind of price.

Sources of weapon supply are usually considered a matter for discretion. But two key Hamas leaders have seen fit to relate precisely and openly to the issue of arms and the preservation of Hamas' links to Iran. It is essential to quote them at length since their statements are essential for understanding the specific nature of this round of the war. The Walrus was calling: Oh dear Hamas - Leave the Iranian monsters and come over to the side of democracy.

The WSJ continues:"CAIRO – Gaza's ruling Hamas won't stop arming itself because only a strong arsenal, not negotiations, can extract concessions from Israel, the No. 2 in the Islamic militant group stated.

The comments by Mousa Abu Marzouk in an interview just three days after the worst bout of Israel-Hamas fighting in four years, signaled trouble ahead for Egyptian-brokered talks between the hostile neighbor on a new border deal… an Israeli security official said this week that Israel would likely link a significant easing of the blockade to Hamas's willingness to stop smuggling weapons into Gaza and producing them there.

Mr. Abu Marzouk said Saturday that the group wouldn't disarm, arguing that recent Palestinian history has shown that negotiations with Israel lead nowhere unless backed by force.

"There is no way to relinquish weapons," Mr. Abu Marzouk said in his office on the outskirts of Cairo. "These weapons protected us and there is no way to stop obtaining and manufacturing them…

Hamas used to be evasive about Iranian weapons support, but in recent days senior officials in the group have openly thanked Tehran.

Gaza strongman Mahmoud Zahar told reporters on Saturday that he is confident that Iran will increase military and financial support to Hamas and the smaller militant group Islamic Jihad.

Mr. Zahar said Saturday that Hamas isn't beholden to anyone, but defended the group's ties with Iran. "If they don't like it, let them compete with Iran in giving us weapons and money," he said in an apparent jab at the Gulf states." (From the same article in the Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2012)

Follow the Guns (Rockets)

Haaretz (November 25, 2012) quotes the Sunday Times to the effect that Israel spy satellites have spotted an Iranian ship loaded with missiles that analysts say may be headed to Gaza. It is a poorly kept secret that Israel bombed a Sudanese arms factory last month

The next round in the fighting is shaping up. Israel and the US went to war to warn Gaza to stay out of ME politics, to threaten Hamas with the danger involved in taking arms from the Iranians and, meanwhile, to smash a significant section of long range missiles at the disposal of Hamas.

Tom Friedman in Search of Democracy

In case anyone still failed to understand the name of the game, Thomas Friedman chimed in with an outline of the proposal. It is to be understood that the attack on Gaza was a wonderful opportunity for Mohammed Morsi to chose between the pleasures of the Camp David peace and US aid and economic development or support for Hamas's radical pro-Iranian stand. Morsi had a great success in Gaza and was well on his way to becoming the hero of our time when he saw fit to announce to his people that he was really the state or that the state was really him. Friedman had advised Morsi that he could achieve eternal fame and glory if he would only team up with Mohammad Abbas. Morsi it seems has other problems.     

This last bloody chapter in the war against the Palestinians pitted a ultra-sophisticated war machine against the spirit of a people who demand freedom.  Someone said it seems like another case of David against Goliath.   

Leading from Behind

From the desk of Reuven Kaminer

Thursday 22, November, 2012

 Leading from Behind

The Israeli Government: We are going to Finish with Hamas

There are many signs, such as the text of the cease fire agreement, which suggest that Israel suffered a crushing defeat in its effort to break Hamas. The government spread illusions among the people that this time it was going to deal Hamas a final "death blow." This is what the masses, especially those in the south under rocket fire, believed was going to happen. It is hard to know what people are thinking regarding the promises by Netanyahu and Barak that they were going to bring Hamas to their knees. Instead of surrender, it is clear that Hamas survived a critical political-military test. It personified, in its own way, the Palestinian demand for freedom and independence. Hamas was not brought to its knees and the masses of Gazans celebrating after the cease fire bears witness to this. Israel's bragging and boasting were exposed in their full  spiteful ugliness.    

Israel's failure to smash Hamas can serve to encourage renewed efforts to advance the cause of Palestinian unity.  This unity is as vital as ever in order to overcome the US-Israeli determination to destroy the hopes and the dreams of the Palestinians for the full realization of their rights.

Obama – Leading from Behind

When hesitation regarding a ground offensive was gathering force in Israeli public opinion here two-three days ago, the world heard from the White House that : Obama has not asked Israel to hold off on ground invasion of Gaza and believes that Israel has [the] right to make its own security decisions. (Reuters)

It is too early to sum up all the events connected with the Israeli offensive and the ensuing diplomatic activity. A lot of the facts and information are still hidden. Even so, some initial conclusions seem warranted.

This whole crisis burst out and sharpened with the United States seemingly out of the picture. This was the US technique of leading from behind. But it was absolutely clear here by virtue of Obama's total enthusiastic backing that the US was behind the Israeli aggression and leading it from behind.   

In Spite of Everything - Obama Loves Bibi

Obama led the international choir chanting the gibberish about Israel's right to defend itself. Israel had exploited one of those almost daily border skirmishes going on along the border with Gaza to launch a full scale retaliation, which was in fact, an attempt to eliminate the Palestinian issue from the international arena. Let us be clear that whoever gives total blanket approval to the Israeli attack bears responsibility for the aggression which in terms of scope and proportion has nothing in common with legitimate defense.

The diplomatic remoteness of the US during the first week of the Israeli operation is merely an indicator that it had appointed Israel as its proactive deputy in the region, including a carte blanche to advance US interests in the region through armed operations. This policy answers the US need to have sizable military ground forces of its or those of a faithful ally at its disposal. The shortage of its own appropriate ground forces is a well-known Achilles heel of the US giant.  Israel, on the other hand, has demonstrated a capacity to mobilize tens of thousands of ground troops in a matter of days. The romance between Barack and Bibi intensifies precisely when many liberals were waiting for the US president to punish Bibi for his attempt to stab a knife into Obama's back during the recent elections. Interests overcome sentiments.

The Demotion of Muhammad Morsi

The complete US identification with the Israeli operation on the Egyptian doorstep was a severe challenge for the Egyptian president.  It was a clear demonstration that the US had empowered Israel to be the sole interpreter and exponent of US interests in the region.  This was a slap in the face for Egypt and a challenge to Morsi's standing.  Morsi failed to meet the challenge. It is definitely not the role of Egypt as the chief force in the Arab world to become a mediator in the conflict between the Palestinians, under occupation, and Israel.  Egypt is supposed to formulate the position and the demands of the Arab world and to fight for those demands, one way or another. At any rate, it is the first duty of the president of Egypt to express to the best of his ability solidarity with the Palestinian people. The job of "objective mediator" for Morsi is demeaning and a self imposed demotion for him and for Egypt. He received his task as mediator through the good offices of the United States and the Israeli establishment has been showering him with compliments ever since he took the job.

And so: Obama and Netanyahu have this new romance. The Israeli population in the south of the country is trying to figure out how it was conned into believing that Bibi, Barak and Lieberman were going to bring them years of peace and quiet. Hamas wrote an impressive chapter in Palestinian resistance. The Palestinian issue does not want to go away and will survive current Egyptian faint heartedness.

This morning news is that the Israeli army and police have arrested 55 Palestinian leaders and activists in the West Bank for fomenting resistance to the Israeli aggression in Gaza. This, it seems is supposed to alleviate the severe frustration of the Israeli leadership.     

Sad Demise of the Zionist Left

Dear friends,

I believe that Sarid's recent article, reprinted here, on the death of the two-state solution deserves closer analysis. Sarid was and is definitely a prominent ideological figure on the Zionist left. I suggest attaching  importance to Sarid's conclusions regarding the death of the two-state solution.  See some of my first comments on the article below.

Yossie Sarid  -Haaretz July 27, 2012

The Zeolots Have "Won" Again

"Don't waste your despair prematurely, save it up for when things get worse." That's what people in the know always advised us. It seems the time has come to open the emergency warehouses and start taking it out. And so we begin.

Writing is particularly hard for me this time. I have a vague but profound feeling that I'm progressing toward admitting an error, and not a negligible one: How did I fail to see the future; I can't forgive myself. And I have no breast to beat except my own.

It is no coincidence that this confession is being written now, on the eve of the Ninth of Av. As we do every year, this year too we will hear all the nonsense about "baseless hatred," which was ostensibly the main reason for the destruction of the Second Temple. You don't have to be a professional sermonizer to stuff us with this historical rubbish. Today every brainwashed layman  knows that if those people hadn't eaten each other alive, they would not have been defeated, and Judea would have survived forever.

Nothing could be further from the truth: The Great Revolt against Rome had no chance of success in the first place. But even the slim chance was extinguished when the Sicarii zealots began to murder the moderates in Jerusalem, until they eliminated the entire leadership. And the "price tag" advocates were not satisfied until they had set fire to the grain silos in the city, doomed it to starvation, and by doing so made defeat inevitable. The victims of the siege therefore had good reason to hate the Jewish terrorists, and their hatred was not "baseless"; it was "well-founded" hatred. Even today we have a duty to hate them in light of our historical and natural right to self-defense.

All these years I refused to believe that history repeats itself. I always convinced myself that what is done can be undone, and that the moment of sobriety, which was being delayed, would eventually arrive. Now it's too late. The successors have arrived at a crisis of leadership, and there is no strength for a rebirth. Perhaps we will try again some day, perhaps the fourth time we will succeed."

It's enough to keep track of five houses as they are being moved to see how farce turns into tragedy. When the sounds of houses being sawed are soon heard, the sounds of a funeral will be in the air: Farewell to you, our soul, from which we were unable to exorcise the dybbuk of the settlements.

The person who prophesied that 25 years ago and knew whereof he spoke was Meron Benvenisti, an intellectual and scholar, who on the pages of this newspaper explained his theory of "irreversibility," because what is done cannot be undone. And I attacked him: "There's no such thing as an irreversible situation," I wrote at the time, "only death is irreversible. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an active volcano, that's why it's absurd to speak about congealed lava, and why sow despair at the wrong time." You were more right than I was, Meron, I failed to see and I spoke nonsense. I didn't properly assess the blindness and the suicidal urge. I pinned false hopes on common sense, on the will to live, on the ability to stop at any moment and change direction. I was wrong, I was guilty.

This article will gladden the hearts of many. Finally we have the privilege of hearing from that Sarid an admission of error and guilt, blessed be He who has brought us to this time. Finally even he understands that the settlements are "forever," may they continue to multiply.

I regret having to spoil the party atmosphere, which is premature and apparently too late as well. In Basel he established the Jewish state, and in Jerusalem they destroyed it. In its place there will soon be a binational state, which is either South Africa or South Africa, because there is no third option. And that South Africa has long since ceased to exist. Thus, the time of your rejoicing is the time of your disaster.

**********************************************************

My comments: Sarid has reached the conclusion that the last existing  chances to establish a Jewish state have been totally destroyed and that Israel has already entered the "South African" stage. Of course, it will take some time until Sarid's conclusions sink into the mindset of what remains of the Zionist-left.  

It was clear to the founding fathers of the Zionist project that the return to Zion had to be justified by linking Zionism to one form or another of the prevailing ideological currents on the "outside." Without an ideological linkup to socialism (of one sort or another) or to universal democratic values (genuine liberalism), the Zionist project would be unable to fight for the souls of Jews in the diaspora. And what would happen in such a circumstance has happened.  Zionism is for chauvinistic cranks and becomes foreign to anyone who refuses to jettison universal values in the name of Zionist sovereignty. The ideological basis for the Zionist left has disappeared leaving many good souls in the air.  The Zionist left has been almost completely marginalized and no longer exists as any kind of electoral force. It is now being condemned by virtue of the death of its ideological basis to certain slow death.

 Sarid's article admits that he can no longer suggest a practical, possible alternative to escape the inevitable degeneration of "victorious" Zionism that lives and breathes in a moral vacuum. Israel's role in the power struggles in the region as the faithful ally of the US empire make do  live quite well with "pure" Zionism, without any sort of Zionism that pretends to be an element in a successful synthesis of Jewish and universal values.  

It is sad that Sarid is almost unconsciously placing his last vestige of hope for the Jews in Palestine in an ephemeral, totally imaginary "one state solution."  Both the one-state and the two-state solutions are dead and irrelevant to the newer and deeper dynamics of the region. But, at this moment, Sarid's honest admission of his errors is an awesome shock to those who still harbored illusions about reforming this Israel, at this stage of its downward spiral.