The plain fact of the matter is that the question of
Israeli-Palestinian peace has been permanently removed from the historical
agenda. There are many honest and highly motivated activists, who are still
devoting time and energy to the cause of
Israeli-Palestinian peace, and who, naturally enough, will bitterly
challenge this assertion. With all due
respect, I shall do my best to explain.
There are three main developments which have effectively
removed the Palestinian issue from the international diplomatic and political
arena: a) The hardening structure of Israeli politics; b) The weakened state of
US hegemony in the Middle East; 3) The growing turmoil in the Arab world.
Before going on to analyze these developments and their role
in eliminating the Palestinian issue from current consideration, I must offer a
sad commentary on the role of the discussion of the issue – and not the issue
itself, in current discourse. Many friends of peace are involved in long,
complex, even convoluted discussions as to the comparative benefits and
disadvantages of the two apparently possible solutions; I am referring of
course to the long standing debate between the two-state and the one-state
solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A tremendous amount of sincerity
and emotion, deep thought and ingenuity have been marshaled by both sides to
the debate. I myself was quite active in this sense, having been for years a
strong devotee of the 2-state solution. The sad fact is that the discussion has
become increasingly meaningless in that there is no real connection between the
debate and any existing political perspective. The periodic news items on this
or that meeting devoted to the resuscitation of the "peace process"
only serve to stress that we are dealing with a mockery and that, effectively,
it is Israel which is calling the shots. For better or for worse, this debate
about the relative virtues of either "solution" has become
meaningless, passé, i.e. totally irrelevant to real life of Palestinians and
Israelis.
The historical elements which created diplomatic space for
the possible for the settlement of the
conflict have more or less withered away. Not all of the new relevant elements
concerning the future of the Jews in the Middle East have come into play, but
there are clear signs of their emergence. Nowhere, now or in the new future,
are we able to discern the outlines of an agreement for peace in
Palestine. The old structures in the
region will die, sooner than later. Let
us return here to the three main causes for this development.
Bibidom and Israel as a Regional Hegemonic Power
The broadest coalition in Israeli history now rules the
country.
Ninety four members of 120 in the Knesset (Parliament)
compose an unassailable coalition. All polls indicate that Netanyahu’s
policies, especially those on Palestinian and security issues, enjoy widespread
support in the public.
Since there are absolutely no serious challenges to the
status quo, both the US and Europe see Israel led by Netanyahu as an
irreversible and reliable fact of political reality. This reality is not at all
bad for the US and its allies. It means that the Palestinians are, for all
practical purposes, "pacified," and there are a lot of useful things
that can be done in the management of the region with the co-operation of an
unencumbered Israel.
The saddest thing here is that the current leadership is the
freely chosen product of Israeli democracy.
The great majority of the Israeli Jews want to maintain the status quo
and genuinely fear any compromise. Much
of this sentiment is a result of manipulation, but most is the direct product
of the very political structure. Israel has moved on from successful management
of the conflict with the Palestinians and is more and more dedicated to
maintaining and expanding its regional hegemony. Life is bearable for the colonial masters of
the region. But any real change or advance towards justice and equality is seen
by the Jewish masses in the country as an unacceptable threat.
The US in Retreat
The facts and figures of the US global retreat are well
known. It is not only a question of the ongoing financial and economic
crisis. It is impossible to exaggerate
the fall in intellectual and moral prestige that has made the US an
embarrassment to many of its most loyal supporters. By its own admission, the
US is strapped for cash, cannot fund its most essential international
commitments, not to speak of a perennial inability to put required troops on
the ground. After Iraq and Afghanistan, the US must be ever so cautious in
employing its tremendous superiority in military technology, because it is
clearly unable to convert even the most successful military successes, in the
relevant arenas of contention, into sustainable political and diplomatic
assets. The growing political limitations of US influence, even on the
background of its military ascendency are the clearest indicator that the US
has not the wherewithal to maintain its empire. It’s the old saw about
bayonets. The US cannot get anyone to sit on them for it.
The Middle East in Turmoil
The historical possibility in the past for a negotiated
settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was generated in a situation
characterized by the almost complete regional hegemony of the US. Peace was to
come as a fruition of Western values. Thinking revolved around the
"liberal" idea of peace, symbolized by US spiritual auspices.
("Why can't you guys just make up?"). One could argue that if the US
could not engineer a settlement between the two national movements, it would
eventually have to give everyone the vote, in a single secular entity. This was
a theoretically achievable goal when the region was under tight US control. But
for years now, neither the US, nor any of its allies show any real discomfort
with the slightly embarrassing realities on the ground. "Israeli
settlement is not helpful,'' goes the mantra.
Arabs in Turmoil
The Arab people of the region are in rebellion. It is most
unlikely that the peace agreements with Israel will survive the storm. But
whatever happens to these political artifacts of the past, it is difficult, and
even impossible to imagine the emergence, in this long period of storm and
stress, of a major Arab formation that would allow itself to become an open or
official partner in the collusion against the Palestinians.
Israel and the US have indeed pushed Palestine off the
current international agenda. As for the near future, an unstable Arab world in
crisis would not dare and could not afford to be seen as exploiting Palestinian
weakness. On the other hand, a stable
Arab constellation, when it emerges, would not be willing to turn its back on
Palestine. Its minimal program on Palestine, when enunciated, would be an
Israeli nightmare.
The momentous changes occurring in the region and beyond it
have rendered the old way of thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
obsolete. Though, we cannot in this and other important matters chart a clear
alternative path forward, we can and should realize that the old game is over.
The difficult and challenges of a new reality are no reason to cling to old,
outmoded perceptions.
This rendering of Palestinian-Israeli realities on the
ground may seem a bit somber. But let us remind ourselves that history in the
Middle East is far from over.
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