From the desk of Reuven
Kaminer
December 12, 2012
Bombs Away
Arlo
Guthrie tried to fake an unbalanced mind for the draft induction medics. He
kept telling them, "I want to keel, I want to keel." It didn't work
because he was simply not credible. No credibility, no deterrence. Israel has
learned the lesson. If you do not kill from time to time, you lose your
deterrence credibility. Credible
deterrence is just what Israel would like to have. Somehow, the lesson that
military success often ends in political reversal is usually lost on Bibi &
Co. The answer to this small difficulty is of course more force.
Israel
wants to bomb. The strategic differences of opinion between Obama and Bibi
regarding the next step against Iran are well known. The Israelis would like to
see Obama leading the charge but if the US insists on leading from behind,
Israel wants US backing for it to start bombing Iran. Israel will bomb and
Obama will hold the umbrella.
Israel
has requested US backing and Jordanian fly- over rights in order to start
bombing Syria. Israel was willing to bomb Syria before the chemical WMD issue
hit the headlines. Now it really wants to bomb Syria.
Israel
never bothered to deny credible reports that it had bombed a munitions factory
last month in Kartoum, Sudan. It barely made the news, but the
"intelligence sources" were on the alert and verified the item.
A few
weeks back, Obama broke down and let Bibi bomb the Gaza strip (the most densely
populated region in the world) night and day for more than a week. The Israelis
are beginning to understand that Obama cannot say no, all the time to his
trusted ally.
Israel
is dying to bomb the Hezbollah rocket facilities in Lebanon. Just like the IDF
did in Gaza last month. But there is a problem.
These rockets seem to be hidden in different locations in the country
where the population is mixed Shi'ite, Druze, Christian and Sunni Muslim.
Targeting in such circumstances is a bit complicated. You wouldn't care too
much about collateral damage if the non-Hezbollah candidates for death and
destruction were not pro-Israeli Christians or other buddies in the anti-Assad
crowd. Israeli policy makers have surmounted this difficulty by clearly
declaring that they will bomb the hell out of Beirut if hostilities break out.
In Israel we talk all the time about deterrence. But the threat that Israel
might bomb Beirut might appear to Hezbollah more encouragement than
deterrence.
Now if
you want to do some bombing, you need bombs. No problem, as they say in these
parts of the world.
The Pentagon has
approved a deal to supply 6,900 precision bomb kits to replenish Israel’s
weapons stockpiles,
diminished by the recent
war against Hamas in Gaza. The contract is valued at $647 million.
“The United States is committed to the
security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel
to develop
and maintain a strong and ready self-defense
capability,” the Pentagon said in a statement. The deal is expected
to sail
through formal
approval by legislators. http://times247.com/articles/congress-mulls-647m-bomb-sale-to-israel
This is a Sanctuary?
I hope, at a later date,
to examine the problems for the Jewish people presented by having Israel
and its Jewish allies in the forefront of international reaction. Here, I am
concerned about the meaning of the present trends in Israeli policy in regards
to the Zionist thesis that the Jews wherever they are need a homeland to serve basically
as a sanctuary. The concept in Hebrew is
rather colorful. The homeland is going to be a shelter for trying times or,
more literally, for stormy days. The thesis is simplicity itself. Outside of
Israel, in the wide world, the Jews are prone to attack and discrimination. The
wrong geography and you are in trouble.
The right geography and you are home safe. It has been suggested along
the years that getting hold of the right geography might in itself be a rather
dangerous proposition. The answer to that objection was that skirmishing with
the Arabs was preferable to ending up in the Nazi death camps. But things
change and not always for the better. Israel, cast in the role as the
deputy-manager of US interests in the region is fulfilling its mission with a
passion. It is not a stooge but an ambitious junior partner. While Washington shows
some sort of aversion for too many flag draped boxes flying in from abroad,
Israelis are, at least temporarily, willing to take enormous risks for their
senior ally.
The US as long as it
hopes to continue to dominate the region must have rapid response fighting
units at its disposal in the Middle East to contain the enemies. Things are much simpler when the preparedness
units are already in the area. Volatility is the new normal in the area and
Israel's value has indeed appreciated.
Israel seems to be very good at this sort of thing – for example, the
Israeli forces appear to have bombed Sudan last month without too much
exposure.
But working for the
Yankee dollar in the region is a hazardous affair. The Israeli role expands from that of most
valued employee to that of genuine junior partner, with Israel utilizing the
increasing influence of the pro-Israeli camp in the US. That camp hopes to force Obama to follow
Netanyahu's recommendations. Israel has taken on itself a dangerous mission –
to prevent any of the major forces in the region from spinning out of US
control. And by virtue of the circumstances, there is more and more work
involved in maintaining "stability" in the region. Israel believes it
can fulfill this role easily because of its clear technological military
superiority, including its regional nuclear monopoly. This may be true for the minute, but this is
no way to run a sanctuary.
Installing a Surrogate
Mubarak Is Not So Easy
Just
when we had started to reconcile ourselves to what appeared to be a new and a
long period of absolute hegemony of political Islam, Egypt and Tunisia erupted once
more. It appears that even with a new,
uncompromised political formation, such as the Brotherhood in power the masses
are full of distrust. The US is willing to do almost anything to stabilize
things for fear of anarchy or worse, a new regime that would issue a new set of demands as the price for
cooperation with the US. The clashes in Egypt, at the least, open possibilities
for serious change. The US wanted to buy Egypt cheap. It is not working. The
price has gone up. If political Islam tries to dominate all the picture, it may
lose all or most of its political capital. The chances for a progressive-
nationalist alternative have appeared. Nasserism
is not dead.
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